The UK could be plunged into a deep freeze with temperatures dropping as low as -30°C if climate change triggers a Gulf Stream collapse, experts have warned.
For years, scientists have sounded the alarm over the potential effects of global warming, from increased droughts to catastrophic floods.
But one scenario bears a stark resemblance to the film The Day After Tomorrow, in which parts of Britain could experience temperatures more common in northern Canada.
Researchers examined how Europe’s climate could be affected if the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) were to substantially weaken in conjunction with 2°C of global warming.
Their analysis revealed that temperatures could plunge to -30°C in Scotland, with Edinburgh spending nearly half of the year with a minimum temperature of below 0°C.
London, meanwhile, would experience cold extremes of -19°C and record over two months’ worth of additional days with sub-zero temperatures compared to the late 19th century.
Expanding sea ice could cover parts of the British Isles, and there would also be increased winter storms, they warned.
So, how cold will your hometown get if the Gulf Stream collapses? Use the interactive map below to find out.
In the Hollywood blockbuster The Day After Tomorrow (pictured), ocean currents around the world stop as a result of global warming, triggering a new ice age on Earth. Here, Big Ben can be seen frozen over
Blanketed with snow: This satellite picture shows the extent of snow cover across Britain and Ireland on January 7, 2010. Under the modelling scenario, scenes like this could be much more common
The AMOC is the large-scale ocean circulation in the Atlantic Ocean that plays a crucial role in regulating both the global and European climate by redistributing heat through the ocean.
There is growing concern that the AMOC, of which the Gulf Stream is a part, may weaken or collapse under future climate change due to an influx of freshwater.
In the new study, researchers used a complex climate model to simulate a range of scenarios in which the circulation system substantially weakens by more than 80 per cent, while also including the effects of global warming.
They warned urgent action must be taken in an attempt to avoid these ‘dangerous tipping points’.
‘The relatively mild climate for a city such as Edinburgh would see drastic changes,’ Michiel Baatsen, co-author of the study, said.
‘For example, it would experience 164 days with minimum temperatures below zero, that’s almost 50 per cent of the year, and an increase of 133 days compared to the pre-industrial climate.
‘The Scandinavian climate would become much colder under such a scenario, with even Norway’s typically mild west coast potentially experiencing extremes below -40°C — a drop of 25 degrees compared to the pre-industrial climate.’
The researchers explained that summer temperatures are not significantly affected by a weaker Atlantic Ocean circulation, although some places would see a slight increase in warm extremes or summer temperatures.
There was an unusually cold winter recorded in Europe 15 years ago. Pictured, a driver tries to dig a car out from under the snow in Allendale, Northumberland, January 5, 2010
The experts warned Edinburgh could spend nearly half of the year with a minimum temperature of below 0°C. Pictured: People walking through snow in Balerno, Edinburgh
As a result, the contrast between summer and winter becomes greater, with much colder winters.
Beyond temperature effects, previous studies show that a weaker circulation system would also lead to less precipitation in Europe, along with faster sea-level rise in the Atlantic Ocean.
‘Continued greenhouse gas emissions put us on a path to further extreme climate impacts, leading to more heatwaves, droughts, and other extreme weather events,’ René van Westen, lead author of the study, said.
‘The longer we keep burning fossil fuels, the worse these will get. At the same time, every fraction of a degree of global warming brings us closer to the collapse of the AMOC.
‘Our new study shows that this would take Europe to the other extreme – a freezing cold future.’
‘Policymakers must take heed – urgent and drastic cuts to greenhouse gas emissions are the only way to mitigate the most catastrophic impacts of the climate crisis and prevent the devastating consequences of an AMOC collapse on society.’
Commenting on the study Gareth Redmond-King, Head of International Programme at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, said: ‘A collapse of the AMOC, a critical ocean current, would tip the UK’s current temperate climate into something like the cold of northern Canada, seriously reducing the land suitable for growing crops, and putting our food security in serious danger.
‘Cutting emissions to net zero is the only solution we have to averting the most dangerous impacts of climate change.
Scientists said parts of Britain could experience temperatures more common in northern Canada. Pictured: Cars in the falling snow on a winter day in Ontario
A person enjoys skiing in the snow at Greenwich Park in South East London on December 12, 2022
In the 2004 blockbuster film starring Jake Gyllenhaal , an enormous ‘superstorm’ triggered by the collapse of the Gulf Stream sets off catastrophic natural disasters
Dr Bablu Sinha, Leader of Climate and Uncertainty, Marine Systems Modelling (MSM), National Oceanography Centre, said the results are ‘physically plausible’ and in line with previous modelling studies.
Professor Jon Robson, Research Fellow at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science at the University of Reading, added: ‘A collapse in the strength of the AMOC would have serious implications, including for people living in Europe.
‘This research adds to a growing worry that a collapse in the strength of the AMOC could mean sharp drops in European winter temperatures and increases in winter storminess across Northern Europe, even in a globally warming climate.’
However some experts urged a sense of caution.
Dr Alejandra Sanchez-Franks, Senior Research Scientist at the National Oceanography Centre, said: ‘While these modelling studies are of great value to our community, it is important to be aware that our observational ocean records have not yet captured a tipping point, so the results of this study and their immediate impact on the real world must be interpreted with caution.’
The study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, was carried out by researchers from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and Utrecht University.
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