As the UK braces for the first heatwave of the year, scientists have revealed just how hot Britain could become.
A Met Office study warns that summers rivalling the famous 1976 heatwave could become the norm as the climate continues to warm.
During that summer the UK spent a sweltering fortnight above the heatwave threshold of 28°C (82°F).
Today, the researchers warn that the UK might spend two-thirds of the summer at those temperatures, with continuous heatwaves lasting up to a month.
In July 2022, the UK experienced the first recorded temperature above 40°C (104°F) as Coningsby, Lincolnshire recorded a record high of 40.3°C (104.54°F).
But as human-caused climate change continues to warm the planet, the Met Office’s research shows that the chances of hitting 40°C are climbing at pace.
The study, published in the journal Weather, shows that there is now a 50/50 chance of the UK hitting 40°C again in the next 12 years.
Worryingly, the researchers warn that even hotter temperatures are possible, with a maximum of 46.6°C (115.9°F) now ‘plausible’ in today’s climate.
Scientists warn that the chances of the UK hitting 40°C in the next 12 years are now 50/50, 60 times higher than the chances in 1960
As the UK prepares for the first heatwave of the year, the Met Office warns that maximum temperatures of 46.6°C (115.9°F) are now ‘plausible’ in today’s climate. Pictured: Londoners enjoy the heat over the weekend
A heatwave is defined as any period of time in which the average surface air temperature is above a certain threshold for three days at a time.
This threshold depends on the average temperature of the location and varies from 25°C (77°F) across the north and west of the UK to 28°C (82.4F) in the east.
Over the last few decades, the frequency and intensity of heatwaves in the UK and around the world have been steadily increasing.
This is because the climate is becoming warmer overall, which makes extreme events more common.
The UK is forecast to experience its first heatwave of the year later this week with temperatures predicted to hit 33°C (91°F) in some parts of the country.
But the most severe heatwave in recent history came in July 2022 when the UK was hit by an ‘unprecedented extreme heatwave’ amidst one of Europe’s hottest summers on record.
These extreme temperatures caused widespread disruption as train tracks warped and buckled, power cuts wiped out connections to large areas, and road surfaces melted in some regions.
The heatwave was also associated with a major wave in excess deaths, making it the UK’s deadliest heatwave on record.
While the 2022 heatwave was an enjoyable time for many, it was also associated with over 3,000 heat-related deaths in England during the summer. Pictured: Sunbathers on Bournemouth Beach in June 2022
As the world experiences the second-warmest May on record globally, experts say that heatwaves are likely to become more common and more intense
More than 1,000 excess deaths among older people were recorded around the four-day peak of the heatwave, with more than 3,000 heat-related deaths in England over summer 2022
Notably, this was also the first time that temperatures in the UK had ever been recorded to exceed 40°C.
However, this study predicts that summers similar to 2022 are likely to become more routine as the climate continues to warm.
The researchers used a global climate model to simulate a large set of plausible climate outcomes.
This allowed them to see how the intensity and frequency of heatwaves have changed in the past and predict how they could change in the future.
Lead author Dr Gillian Kay, senior scientist at the Met Office, says: ‘The chance of exceeding 40°C has been rapidly increasing, and it is now over 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s.
‘Because our climate continues to warm, we can expect the chance to keep rising.’
Dr Kay adds: ‘We also found that temperatures several degrees higher than we saw in July 2022 are possible in today’s climate.’
This year, all four nations also recorded their highest spring mean temperature, with Northern Ireland and Scotland recording notably high temperatures, up 2.88°F (1.6°C) on average
The Met Office predicts that heatwaves in which the UK spends 12 days above 35°C (95°F) are now possible. Pictured: Crowds enjoying the warm weather at Broadstairs, Kent during the 2022 heatwave
In the simulations, maximum temperatures exceeding 45°C (113°F) were found to be possible.
Likewise, heatwaves of over a month above 28°C (82°F) are possible in southeast England today.
More worryingly, the study found that heatwaves in which the UK spends 12 days above 35°C (95°F) are now possible.
That is a particularly important threshold since electric fans can only keep you cool when the temperature is below 35°C.
Since this is around the average temperature of the skin, using a fan at this temperature actually blows away the layer of cool air formed by evaporating sweat.
This means a fan can actually raise your core body temperature increase the risk of overheating.
That could be particularly dangerous for the elderly or those with long-term health conditions who are prone to heat exhaustion and heat stroke.
Co-author Dr Nick Dunstone, a Met Office Science Fellow, says: ‘These findings highlight the need to prepare and plan for the impacts of rising temperatures now, so we can better protect public health, infrastructure, and the environment from the growing threat of extreme heat.’
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