UK grocery inflation edged slightly lower last month, but shoppers are set to continue facing sky-high food bills as forecasters warn price growth will keep rising.
Shoppers are still finding prices for their favourite staples creeping up almost every week in come cases, and fresh data on Tuesday provides little evidence that significant relief can be expected any time soon.
Closely-watched figures from Numerator’s Wordpanel show grocery inflation stood at 5 per cent over the four weeks to 10 August, compared to 5.2 per cent last month.
And, as a result of having to spend so much money in supermarkets, data shows visits to casual and fast-food restaurants are down.
Trade body the British Retail Consortium, which represents Britain’s biggest retailers, predicts that food inflation will hit 6 per cent by the end of the year, putting more pressure on household budgets in the run up to Christmas.
The Bank of England, which targets consumer price inflation of 2 per cent, has forecast food price growth will rise to 5.5 per cent ahead of Christmas, before falling back.
Edging down: Grocery inflation across Britain edged down marginally in the month to 10 August, new data shows
Aside from showing that grocery inflation has edged down, today’s report also revealed that one billion fish fingers were sold in the past year, ahead of the British staple turning 70 in September.
What’s happened to food inflation?
Wordpanel said chocolate, fresh meat and coffee saw prices rise the fastest, while prices for champagne, sparkling wine, dog food and sugar confectionary are falling at the fastest pace.
Take-home sales at the grocers grew by 4 per cent over the four weeks, compared to the same period a year ago.
Sales of branded grocery items rose 6.1 per cent this month, putting them ahead of own-label alternatives, which were up by 4.1 per cent. This represented the biggest gap in favour of brands since March 2024, according to the research.
Branded item sales comprise 46.4 per cent of all grocery spending, with shoppers most likely to plump for branded personal care, confectionary, hot drinks and soft drinks, the report said.
It added: ‘While a far smaller part of the market, premium own-label is also continuing to do well and sales rose by 11.5 per cent this period.’
Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel, said on Tuesday: ‘We’ve seen a marginal drop in grocery price inflation this month, but we’re still well past the point at which price rises really start to bite and consumers are continuing to adapt their behaviour to make ends meet.’
He added: ‘What people pay for their supermarket shopping often impacts their spending across other parts of the high street too, including their eating and drinking habits out of the home.
‘Casual and fast service restaurants especially have seen a decline in visitors over the summer, with trips falling by 6 per cent during the three months to mid-July 2025 – compared with last year. The outliers in this are coffee shops which have bucked the trend.’
Official data on Wednesday is expected to show accelerating inflation, which could in turn curb the pace of interest rate cuts.
Which supermarket came out on top?
Lidl and Ocado were tied for top spot as the fastest growing grocers over the 12 weeks to 10 August, with sales at both retailers up 10.7 per cent compared to the same period last year, Worldpanel said.
Lidl’s share of the market increased by 0.5 percentage points to 8.3 per cent, while Ocado now holds 1.9 per cent, up from 1.8 per cent last year.
Online sales across all retailers jumped 6.7 per cent over the 12 week period.
Tesco enjoyed its largest monthly share gain since December 2024 as its hold of the market rose by 0.8 percentage points to 28.4 per cent. This was driven by sales growth of 7.4 per cent compared to last year.
Shopper spending at Sainsbury’s grew 5.2 per cent on last year, taking its portion of the market to 15 per cent.
Sales at Aldi were 4.8 per cent higher, giving it a 10.8 per cent share of the market.
Asda and Morrisons’ share of the market now stands at 11.8 per cent and 8.4 per cent respectively.
Spending at Waitrose grew 4.8 per cent over the 12 weeks, with its market share at 4.4 per cent.
With its sales rising by 3.4 per cent, Iceland’s hold of the market remained at 2.3 per cent. Co-op has a 5.4 per cent share of take-home sales, the findings added.
Commenting on changing habits at home, Fraser McKevitt said: ‘The average home cook now spends three minutes less preparing the evening meal than they did in 2017 at just under 31 minutes.
‘We can see this trend in the growth of things like microwaveable rice, ready meals and chilled pizza too, which have grown by 8 per cent, 6 per cent and 5 per cent respectively.’
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