A direct hit by Hurricane Kiko appears almost certain as forecasters now warn that dangerous mudslides, torrential downpours, and flooding will batter Hawaii in days.
The Category 4 hurricane has been barreling towards the Hawaiian Islands this week and is now projected to make landfall by Tuesday afternoon local time, roughly 8pm ET.
The latest spaghetti models of the hurricane have converged on the islands, with most tracks now predicting the major storm will hit the northeastern side of Hawaii’s Big Island before moving over Maui, Molokai, and Oahu.
Meteorologists have warned that the heavy rains expected next week will likely trigger flash flooding, road washouts, and potentially deadly landslides in some areas of the state.
Up to eight inches of rain have been forecasted for the eastern and northern regions of the Big Island and northern Maui, which receives between two and three million tourists each year.
Hurricane Kiko strengthened to a Category 4 storm Wednesday night, building sustained wind speeds of 145 mph as it churns in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
However, the storm may soon reach Category 5 status, with sustained winds over 157 mph, according to AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, Alex DaSilva, who added that the hurricane has entered a region of the Pacific that will continue to fuel it.
If Kiko does not weaken in the coming days, it would become the first major hurricane to directly strike Hawaii since Hurricane Iniki in September 1992.
The latest spaghetti models of Hurricane Kiko strongly predict landfall in the Hawaiian Islands next week
The Category 4 storm may strengthen into a Category 5 hurricane before reaching Hawaii, but experts predict it’ll weaken before making landfall
That storm struck as a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 145 mph, almost 33 years to the day of Kiko’s projected landfall.
The 1992 hurricane resulted in six deaths, destroyed over 1,400 homes, and caused an estimated $3 billion in damage.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Thursday that it’s still too soon to know how intense Kiko will be when it passes over Hawaii, but meteorologists warned that the impact will be severe even if the storm weakens.
‘If Kiko continues toward Hawaii, even as a less intense tropical storm, it could still bring significant wind and rain to the islands next week,’ DaSilva said in a statement.
Although Kiko could briefly reach Category 5 strength this weekend, weather experts still expect the hurricane to lose steam when it crosses into cooler waters closer to Hawaii and encounters more wind shear.
Increasing wind shear means Kiko will run into stronger winds blowing at different heights in the atmosphere which typically tear a storm’s structure apart.
The AccuWeather team added that Hawaii’s Big Island and large mountains often act as a shield against tropical storms and hurricanes rolling through the Pacific, pushing many south or north of the state.
However, even a near-miss can still flood parts of Hawaii and cause serious damage, as these major storms can extend for hundreds of miles across the ocean.
Meteorologists have called for up to eight inches of rain when the hurricane hits Hawaii Tuesday afternoon
Weather experts also warned that the storm cause flash floods and dangerous mudslides in some areas
Currently, only two possible tracks for Hurricane Kiko have the storm moving away from Hawaii, while several others predict a direct impact on the Big Island or in Maui.
A spaghetti model shows the different possible paths a tropical storm or hurricane might take, based on predictions from multiple weather computer programs.
Each line represents one model’s guess about where the storm could go. If the lines are close together, it means most models agree on the path, and the prediction is more certain.
No hurricane warnings have been issued in Hawaii as of Thursday, with local forecasters noting that Kiko is still relatively far away from the islands, about 1,300 miles east of the Big Island.
According to Hawaii News Now, the only alert at the moment is for minor coastal flooding Sunday along shorelines and low lying areas around the islands.
However, meteorologist Guy Hagi noted that official advisories for dangerous ocean swells could start going out to residents as early as Monday.
The last major hurricane to strike Hawaii was in 1992, killing six people and causing billions in damage
Weather experts have projected that Hurricane Kiko will pass over the Hawaiian Islands between September 9 and 10
Kiko was the 11th named system in the eastern Pacific this year, and the Pacific hurricane season still has three months left to go.
The season runs from May 15 until November 30, making it two weeks longer than the Atlantic hurricane season.
Previously, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had predicted a ‘below-normal season’ for the eastern Pacific, with 12 to 18 named storms, five to 10 hurricanes, and up to five major hurricanes.
Another Pacific hurricane, Lorena, briefly formed early Wednesday morning before breaking down into a tropical storm headed for the US West Coast this weekend, bringing heavy rain to states like Arizona and New Mexico.
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