The Atlantic Ocean has been eerily quiet even as hurricane season reaches its peak, but new models suggest this may be the calm before the storm.
The latest Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) predicts a heightened risk of tropical cyclone formation starting September 17.
Models indicated a 40 to 60 percent chance of storms developing across the central Atlantic near the Cape Verde Islands, tracking west toward the Lesser Antilles with potential to affect the wider Atlantic basin.
Forecasters also predicted a 20 to 40 percent probability of tropical cyclones forming in the northwest Caribbean and Gulf of America over the next two weeks.
Odds in the eastern Atlantic are expected to rise slightly, as a particularly strong tropical wave projected off the coast of Africa around September 20 could boost formation chances to 40 to 60 percent.
September 10 marks the typical peak of the hurricane season, but this ‘year is the first climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season in nearly a decade without a named storm in the basin,’ AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said.
‘No tropical storms or hurricanes over the Atlantic basin on Sept. 10 has only happened three times over the last 30 years,’ DaSilva added.
However, meteorologists have spotted tropical waves emerging off the west coast of Africa that could prove the latest models accurate.
A new model has warned that tropical activity in the Atlantic is likely to kick back up on September 17
Meteorologists are currently monitoring two tropical waves moving west off the coast of Africa
‘There is a low risk that a new tropical wave moving across the primary Atlantic development region could develop in the coming days,’ DaSilva said.
During hurricane season, roughly 40 to 60 tropical waves move westward across the Atlantic.
Typically, about one in five of these waves develops into a tropical storm or hurricane, though the likelihood can rise significantly during the season’s peak periods of heightened activity.
‘We expect several tropical waves from Africa to push off the western coast in the next few weeks, posing a risk for Atlantic hurricane development,’ DaSilva warned.
The AccuWeather meteorologists also highlighted a cold front about thousands of miles to the northwest and just a few dozen miles off the southern Atlantic Coast of the US, which ‘could spin up tropical development this weekend or early next week.’
‘It is unusual for the tropics to be this quiet, but not unexpected,’ DaSilva said.
‘In March, when we issued our hurricane season forecast, we predicted that surges of dry air could lead to a midseason lull.’
The Atlantic hurricane season has seen only Hurricane Erin, a long-lived and very powerful storm.
The Atlantic has been very quiet this year, only producing one hurricane named Erin in August (pictured)
Erin was the fifth named storm, but the first and only hurricane of the season so far.
The hurricane season runs from May 15 until November 30, making it two weeks longer than the Atlantic hurricane season.
It developed as a tropical wave on August 11 and reached Category 5 hurricane status by August 16
From August 19 to 21, Erin grew larger while maintaining its strength as it tracked parallel to the US East Coast.
By August 22, the storm turned eastward and began losing its tropical characteristics, completing its transition to an extratropical system later that day.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has predicted a ‘below-normal season’ for the eastern Pacific, with 12 to 18 named storms, five to 10 hurricanes, and up to five major hurricanes.
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