Tropical Storm Gabrielle is likely to develop into a hurricane within days, as the latest projections have revealed its path has dramatically shifted.
After early spaghetti models warned that Gabrielle could take a direct path to the East Coast, the latest predictions suggested the storm could turn away from the US.
Gabrielle currently has sustained winds of 50 mph as it moves into an area of the Atlantic.
AccuWeather meteorologists said Gabrielle is likely to reach Category 1 hurricane strength on Monday, with winds of 75 to 95 mph, and is expected to maintain that intensity through Wednesday, September 24.
At that point, the storm is projected to wither back into a tropical storm as it spirals further into the middle of the Atlantic.
The latest weather models have predicted that Gabrielle will make a sudden right turn as it nears Bermuda, taking it into a part of the Atlantic that should spare the US any major effects of the storm.
Despite Gabrielle’s new path, forecasters have warned that shifts in the storm’s path could move it closer to parts of the Caribbean and the southeastern US.
Regardless, rough surf and rip currents for coastal residents are the main concerns as Gabrielle spins away from the East Coast.
Tropical Storm Gabrielle (circled) is now expected to turn away from the US East Coast after strengthening into a hurricane next week
New spaghetti models of Gabrielle’s path have tightened, with most agreeing the storm will not threaten the US
AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said: ‘Interests in the northeastern Caribbean and Bermuda should closely monitor the progress of Gabrielle, as any shift in its track could bring wind and rain to the Leeward Islands late this week and this weekend.’
Gabrielle is expected to bring rough surf, strong gusts, and localized flooding to Bermuda early next week, though the severity will depend heavily on its track and intensity.
Although major impacts to the US are not expected, rough surf and dangerous rip currents could affect the East Coast from mid- to late next week, as Gabrielle is forecast to pass near Bermuda.
Gabrielle formed quickly on Wednesday morning, moving from a tropical depression to a named storm within a few hours.
It’s the seventh named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which has been surprisingly quiet with less than three months to go this year.
To this point, only Tropical Storm Chantal has made landfall in the US this year, causing at least six deaths and widespread flooding in the Carolinas in July.
Only one named storm in the Atlantic, Erin, has reached hurricane status in 2025, exploding into a major Category 5 event in mid-August.
Gabrielle’s emergence broke a historic stretch of quiet weather in the Atlantic, which hadn’t been matched in 33 years.
Gabrielle became a named storm on Wednesday, making it only the seventh Atlantic storm of the season so far
Hurricane forecasters went 19 days between the end of Tropical Storm Fernand and naming Gabrielle.
The last time there were no named storms in the Atlantic for that long a stretch was 1992, when Americans were able to recover for 19 days after Hurricane Andrew devastated Florida.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) previously predicted an ‘above average’ hurricane season with more than 18 named storms and up to five major hurricanes impacting the East Coast.
Meteorologists with AccuWeather have confirmed this warming trend, noting that parts of the Gulf and Caribbean have water temperatures well into the 80s to near 90.’
Tropical storms typically only need the Atlantic to be around 80 degrees Fahrenheit for cyclones to form.
DaSilva noted that another tropical system forming near Africa will likely not develop into anything worrisome over the next week.
‘This tropical wave is struggling to organize at this time as it is moving through an area with atmospheric conditions that are challenging for tropical development,’ DaSilva said in a statement.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs until November 30, with the peak of the season typically starting September 10 and lasting until mid-October.
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