A revered astrophysicist has warned that Elon Musk’s Starlink satellites, which are falling daily, could cause disastrous damage to the Earth’s stratosphere.
Jonathon McDowell expressed fears over Starlink satellites that are currently deorbiting at a rate of one or two each day, and the potential for damage as thousands more are being pushed into space.
If the stratosphere is damaged, especially its ozone layer, more harmful UV radiation would reach the Earth’s surface, leading to increased skin cancer, cataracts and eye damage in humans
McDowell, who worked at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics for 37 years, said that more than 25,000 pieces of orbital debris are currently circling the planet.
The debris, or ‘space junk,’ is comprised of dead satellites, spent rocket stages or collision fragments.
Currently, 8,000 of Musk’s SpaceX satellites are operating overhead, with more expected to come from Musk as well as other companies and countries.
Just this year, SpaceX has launched more than 2,000 satellites into orbit, according to Spaceflight Now.
The Federal Aviation Administration warned Musk in 2023 that his satellites had the potential to seriously injure or kill someone by 2035.
Elon Musk’s Starlink satellites are falling to Earth every day, and with more planned to launch scientists are concerned over the growing space debris effects on the stratosphere
Currently, 8,000 of Musk’s SpaceX satellites are operating overhead, with more than 2,000 satellites launched into orbit this year alone
A report from the FAA predicted that around 28,000 hazardous fragments from de-orbiting satellites could survive reentry over the next few years.
Musk, however, declared the analysis to be ‘preposterous, unjustified and inaccurate’ in a letter to the FAA and Congress. SpaceX’s principal engineer at the time, David Goldstein, called the report ‘deeply flawed.’
‘To be clear, SpaceX’s satellites are designed and built to fully demise during atmospheric reentry during disposal at the end of life, and they do so,’ the letter reads.
In February of this year, however, Musk’s SpaceX released a statement that not all satellites fully disintegrate upon reentry, as the company began to cycle out older satellites that were designed to orbit for five years.
‘While this proactive approach comes at the cost of losing satellites that are serving users effectively, we believe it is the right thing to do to keep space safe and sustainable—SpaceX encourages all satellite owners and operators to safely de-orbit satellites before they become non-maneuverable,’ the company said in a release.
As more and more satellites are expected to fill the skies, McDowell explained that, combined with the low-orbit satellite lifespan of about five to seven years, reentries will climb to five per day in the coming years.
‘With all constellations deployed, we expect about 30,000 low-Earth orbit satellites and perhaps another 20,000 satellites at 1,000 km [620 miles] from the Chinese systems. For the low-orbit satellites, we expect a five-year replacement cycle, and that translates to five reentries a day,’ he told Earthsky.
But McDowell’s calculations also came with a grave warning that, with such high numbers, Earth may fall victim to Kessler syndrome.
Kessler syndrome is a theoretical scenario caused by high numbers of low-orbiting objects that can result in a chain reaction of collisions, leading to large numbers of space debris.
Astrophysicist Jonathon McDowell (pictured) said that the increase in numbers in space could lead to disaster as the overcrowding may cause a domino effect of collisions
The SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket creates a condensation trail as it launches 28 Starlink satellites in September
Such a scenario would result in a domino effect of collisions, furthering the amount of debris.
‘If just one percent of Starlink satellites [assuming the planned 30k constellation] die on station, that’s still 300 satellites,’ McDowell told the Register.
‘Three hundred big satellites could tip low Earth orbit into Kessler.’
McDowell noted the region of space currently closest to succumbing to the syndrome is at the 600 to 1,000 kilometer range, which he said is ‘full of old Soviet rocket stages’ as well as other debris.
‘And the more we add there, the more likely it is for Kessler syndrome to occur,’ he added.
While many proposed satellites aren’t aiming for that range of space, with many opting for low Earth orbit like Starlink, McDowell noted that China’s fleet of thousands is reaching above the 1,000km mark.
He added that, if something were to go wrong above 1,000km, ‘we’re probably screwed.’
‘That higher altitude means the atmosphere won’t drag them down for centuries, and I haven’t seen [China] demonstrate any retirement plans for those satellites,’ McDowell added.
Amazon aimed to launch over 3,000 satellites as part of the company’s Amazon Kuiper broadband internet
Jeff Bezos’ Amazon set its sights on launching 3,236 satellites as part of the company’s Amazon Kuiper broadband internet earlier this year, beginning with 27 launched in April.
Fears over the spike in satellite numbers overhead aren’t limited to polluting the stratosphere with space junk.
Musk’s satellites are designed to burn up as they are guided back to Earth, leaving scientists concerned about the amount of metals being released into the atmosphere as they re-enter.
Researchers, such as atmospheric chemist Daniel Murphy of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Chemical Sciences Laboratory, told Science that ‘almost no one is thinking about the environmental impact on the stratosphere.’
The ever-increasing concern over the mass production of satellites, and plans for thousands more, resulted in a study from Murphy and other colleagues researching the effect on the stratosphere.
These satellites, as they burn up upon re-entry, release metal vapors that condense into aerosol particles that descend into the stratosphere, according to the study.
Around ten percent of the aerosol particles were found to contain aluminum, lithium and copper, as well as other toxic metals from fallen satellites.
‘Planned increases in the number of low Earth orbit satellites within the next few decades could cause up to half of stratospheric sulfuric acid particles to contain metals from reentry,’ the study said.
United Launch Alliance (ULA) prepares its Atlas rocket to launch a payload of Kuiper satellites for Amazon in September
Musk’s satellites are designed to burn up as they are guided back to Earth, leaving scientists concerned about the amount of metals being released into the atmosphere as they re-enter
While the exact outcomes of the releases on the stratosphere remain unclear, the study noted potential effects on the ozone layer.
Aluminum, one of the most common metals used to create the satellites, could end up creating aluminum chloride or hydroxide, which, when reacted with hydrogen chloride, would produce aluminum chloride.
While hydrogen chloride is overall relatively safe, aluminum chloride is easily split apart by light and therefore the chlorine is freed to destroy the ozone, Science reported.
Further speculation leads to the potential for polar stratospheric clouds, which could cause reactions leading to destructive forms of chlorine.
While current research remains speculative, researchers are concerned about the unknown effects that could crop up within the next few years.
‘The in-space circular economy is so important, and this should be the long-term strategy: refueling, repairing, recycling, in-space manufacturing, and relaunch from space,’ Adam Mitchell, a materials engineer at the European Space Agency, told Science.
Pierre Lionnet, managing director of ASD Eurospace, told the outlet: ‘You have to wonder whether [SpaceX] is creating a major problem 30 years from now.’
Yet, McDowell told the Register that ‘so far’ it remains unclear if its already too late to turn back.
These satellites, as they burn up upon re-entry, release metal vapors that condense into aerosol particles that descend into the stratosphere
‘So far answers have ranged from ‘this is too small to be a problem’ to ‘we’re already screwed,’ he said.
‘But the uncertainty is large enough that there’s already a possibility we’re damaging the upper atmosphere.
‘There are indications that things are already getting bad, but it’s murky right now, and that scares me.’
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